2002 Caspian Sea Regional Policy Symposium Presentation Summary

Understanding Multiple Scales of Environmental Security and State Sovereignty: The State of Azerbaijan

Shannon O'Lear
Assistant Professor
Department of Geography
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

Introduction
When we look at a map of the world, we see states as fixed, spatial entities neatly bounded by a definitive line. As a political geographer, I am interested in states not as "containers" of activity, but as complex, territorial entities exhibiting international, domestic and overlapping scales of interactions. Like others who seek to understand the role of states in the world today, I approach state sovereignty not as a universal characteristic, but as the particular balance (or imbalance) among state legitimacy, authority and autonomy. In particular, I am interested in the role that natural resources play as state governments construct sovereignty, and the political and territorial implications of unevenly distributed natural resource benefits within and among states. The Caspian Sea and Caucasus regions provide a particularly rich context for studying this theme.

Since becoming independent ten years ago, the Southern tier of the former Soviet Union has captured the attention of scholars, policy makers and diplomats many of whom are focused on the natural resources of this region, particularly oil and natural gas. Outside interests tend to focus on questions related to how states in this area will manage the development of, for example, the Caspian seabed and those states will participate in the export of petroleum. Inter-state stability and conflict issues related to the distribution and use of natural resources are frequently labeled as "environmental security" concerns, and these relationships are increasingly discussed in the case of the Caucasus and neighboring Caspian Sea region.

Research objectives
I am examining Azerbaijan's environmental security and state sovereignty through two complementary research tracks focused on the following questions:

1. How is Azerbaijan utilizing the oil industry to strengthen its sovereignty, and how is this process contributing to the emergence of liberal democracy in Azerbaijan?

2. In what ways do Azerbaijanis' attitudes toward their environmental conditions motivate political action, and to what degree might these attitudes threaten Azerbaijan's state sovereignty?

The objective of pursuing research questions at different, but intertwining scales is to advance a more thorough assessment of social and political implications, both current and potential, for Azerbaijan's role in the export of Caspian Sea oil and in regional stability.

My first research track utilizes the theoretical framework of constructing sovereignty to investigate how Azerbaijan is pursuing international legitimacy and political clout through the use of its natural resources, specifically the wealth of Caspian Sea oil. Through external associations with international oil companies, trade, formal regional associations and its support of the US effort in Afghanistan, Azerbaijan appears to be constructing its sovereignty toward the liberal democracies of the West. Global-scale business opportunities in the petroleum industry allow Azerbaijan to take advantage of its oil wealth and strategic location to develop its economy away from reliance on Russia as the main oil-exporting agent of the region. However, Russia remains Azerbaijan's major trade partner, and recent negotiations between the two countries suggest a positive trend in their relations. Although Azerbaijan is predominantly a Muslim state, it is not actively seeking alliances with other Muslim states. Instead, as a small state located in a rough neighborhood, it is opting to align itself with non-Russian dominated international "clubs" so as not to be sidelined from globalization processes.

As a state, Azerbaijan appears imbalanced between, on one hand, a heavy emphasis on constructing its external sovereignty through connections with other states and associations and, on the other hand, waning public support and decaying public services. Azerbaijan may not be able to maintain state stability given this disjuncture between external and internal sovereignty. A liberal democratic state, however, would likely pursue a balance between government and public spheres and between external and internal strengths. If only a minority of people in Azerbaijan continues to retain the benefits of global and regional connections, internal instability may overwhelm the attempts of the Azerbaijani government to promote a Western-leaning identity for itself.

Through external associations with international oil companies, formal regional associations and its support of the US effort in Afghanistan, Azerbaijan appears to be constructing its sovereignty away from Russia and toward the liberal democracies of the West. Global-scale business opportunities in the petroleum industry allow Azerbaijan to take advantage of its oil wealth and strategic location to develop its economy away from reliance on Russia as the main oil exporting agent. However, Russia remains Azerbaijan's major trade partner. Although Azerbaijan is predominantly a Muslim state, it is not actively seeking alliances with other Muslim states. Instead, as a small state located in a rough neighborhood, it is taking the strategy of aligning itself with larger, also non-Russian dominated groups so as not to be sidelined from globalization processes that may help Azerbaijan to emerge as a liberal democratic state. Through sovereignty bargains with regional associations, Azerbaijan is seeking to secure legitimacy as an independent state.

Azerbaijan's internal sovereignty is slowly coming to exhibit features of a liberal democracy, namely, commitment to government by election, market-driven, mixed economies, and a vibrant civil society. The Azerbaijani government is undertaking free-market economic policies and structural reform, but there is little transparency in these processes and privatization is slow. Fortunately, there is little risk of depreciation of the Azerbaijani manat since the inflation rate is low. Although the pace of economic reform in Azerbaijan is less than what the International Monetary Fund (IMF) would prefer, the IMF did resume assistance to Azerbaijan at the beginning of 2001 in recognition of efforts in the areas of privatization, banking, civil service, taxes and the establishment of a state oil fund. Yet despite the many areas of progress noted in the IMF's first review of Azerbaijan's performance under the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility, two areas still needed attention are poverty reduction and "effective" participation.

Adjustments to previous policies have been made within Azerbaijan (e.g. releasing journalists imprisoned for criticizing the government, allowing public protests of the government, amending election legislation, etc.), and these adjustments bring Azerbaijan closer to the definition of a liberal democracy. Yet without formal institutionalization of these and other state-wide commitments to liberal democratic reform, may only serve to increase people's sense of instability or unpredictability of the government. Particularly since many of the liberalizing adjustments to Azerbaijan's policies have occurred in tandem with US efforts in Afghanistan, they may be seen, both internally and externally, as attempts to take advantage of increased attention on Azerbaijan as a Muslim state, as a former Soviet republic, and as a valuable slice of air space. Azerbaijan's interest in securing external recognition of its legitimacy, authority, autonomy and territoriality appear at this point to take priority over securing internal stability through fiscal balancing, increased and efficient spending on public services, and encouragement of civil society.

As a state, Azerbaijan appears imbalanced between, on one hand, a heavy emphasis on constructing its external sovereignty through connections with other states and associations and, on the other hand, waning public support and decaying public services. Azerbaijan may not be able to maintain stability given this disjuncture between external and internal sovereignty. A liberal democratic state, however, would likely pursue a balance between government and public spheres and between external and internal strengths. If Azerbaijan continues to reinforce its internal authority by institutionalizing liberal adjustment to its policies and by investing its oil wealth more directly into public benefits, it may indeed manage to make progress toward being a liberal democratic state. If instead only a minority of people in Azerbaijan continues to retain the benefits of global connections, as well as regional associations within the global arena, internal stability may overwhelm the attempts of the Azerbaijani government to promote a Western-leaning identity for itself.

The second track of my research takes as its point of departure critiques of environmental security literature arguing that state-level security does not necessarily equate with day-to-day security for people living within that state. Some scholars have pointed to resource scarcity as contributing to tension and conflict, and other scholars point to resource abundance as contributing to imbalance and conflict. However, both of these views are deterministic and may miss complexities embedded in different types of resources as well as context-specific issues of human well-being. As some groups of people are rendered "environmentally secure" other groups may well be rendered "environmentally insecure" with, for example, insufficient access to clean water and air or to physically safe environments. In the second track of my research, I am investigating how environmental insecurity (or a lack of human security) may contribute to tension within the state and pose a potential threat to state stability and sovereignty in the case of Azerbaijan. Much research in the area of environmental security examines macro-security at the state level and neglects sub-state variation. Taking a political geography perspective, my study aims to bring variables of sub-state level human security into a wider discussion on the interplay of environmental issues and security at different scales.

This second track of my research involves a nation-wide survey of Azerbaijani citizens. I am currently developing a pilot survey in Azerbaijan to examine the degree to which environmental concerns at the local level motivate political action of various kinds. A sample of Azerbaijani citizens will be interviewed for information regarding what kinds of environmental problems they perceive, if these concerns motivate them to vote, to protest, or to engage in other forms of political activity, and if there are other concerns that take priority over the environment. I will design the survey instrument to collect additional data on preferred information or news sources, education level, gender, and so forth. This population sample will be drawn from different sized cities, from different regions, and with either a close or distant proximity to oil pipeline construction. A pre-test of the survey in Azerbaijan in the summer of 2002 will allow an assessment of the appropriateness of survey data and will help me to strengthen a proposal for external funding to conduct the main survey.

Future research agendas for scholars in Geography
Geographers could further contribute to this area of study by

• Examining case studies of how state sovereignty is being constructed in other Caspian littoral states
• Investigating economic, political and social networks at different and nesting scales of activity in this region
• Examining the long-term viability of pipeline networks (both new and planned) in this region as well as the potential for smaller scale economic and social initiatives to complement state efforts
• Exploring the process of boundary demarcation and delimitation in the Caspian and expected effects on oil production, sturgeon population stability and economic conditions in the littoral states.
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Relevance of this research to the US policy community
On 16 October 2001, the US Secretary of State Colin Powell recognized Azerbaijan's support of the US military effort in Afghanistan by urging the US government to lift the sanctions placed on Azerbaijan by Section 907 of the Freedom Support Act. By January 25th 2002, President Bush signed into effect a waiver of these sanctions thus opening channels for the flow of aid and assistance to the Azerbaijani government. An estimated $50 million US aid will now flow into Azerbaijan aimed mainly at strengthening the country's borders and on anti-terrorism efforts. How Azerbaijan utilizes an improved connection with the US will be telling for Azerbaijan's potential as a liberal, democratic state. Yet Azerbaijan is not awaiting the results of Powell's appeal to lift sanctions. Azerbaijan has already claimed that Armenians occupying the Nagorno-Karabakh region are terrorists, and it has warned that it is prepared to take military action to regain control of the area.

The US policy community will be best able to respond to events in the region with a coherent understanding of interstate relationships as well as domestic conditions in all the circum-Caspian States. This multi-scale research agenda will promote a clearer appreciation of an important portion of the complexities of the Caspian Sea region. Now that the US is initiating anti-terrorism efforts in Georgia's Pankisi Gorge and given that accusations of terrorism are rampant, it will be particularly important for policy makers to understand current conditions and connections in the Caucasus region.