2002 Caspian Sea Regional Policy Symposium Presentation Summary

Regional Stakeholder Analysis in the Caspian Environment Programme: Identification of Potential Conflicts of Interests in Caspian Waters

Mary Matthews
Assistant Professor of Environmental Science and Policy
University of South Florida at St. Petersburg

Executive Summary

The stakeholder analysis in the UNDP/Caspian Environment Programme is intended to empirically examine the relationships between stakeholder groups in the Caspian region. Stakeholder analyses were not performed in other UN Regional Seas Programmes, and it is believed this is one reason some of them have become stymied by bureaucratic infighting and regional rivalries. As a result of this the Caspian Environment Programme has commissioned a regional stakeholder analysis in order to test environmental attitudes, commitments, concerns and conflicts of a variety of stakeholders in the Caspian region.

The Caspian Regional Stakeholder Analysis is based on 256 surveys administered during the summer of 2001 in all Caspian states. The survey was designed to test environmental attitudes and concerns regarding eight major perceived problems and issues (MPPIs). These MPPIs were determined by representatives from all Caspian states in the process of preparing the Transboundary Diagnostic Analysis for the Caspian Environment Programme. These MPPIs are: decline in certain fisheries, decline in coastal infrastructure and amenities, decline in overall environmental quality, threats to human health, decline in biodiversity, coastal landscape degradation, potential damage from oil and gas activities, potential damage from invasive species. The regional stakeholder analysis examines the individual stakeholder groups' interests in these issues, and others, in order to determine where stakeholder groups may be at odds over the future management of these. Additionally, survey participants were asked to rank root causes for environmental concerns in the region. Through statistical analysis these conflicts are identified, measured and weighed in term of their likelihood of causing conflicts between groups with in the region.

For example, one important conflict that has been identified is the concern among representatives of the Agriculture and Fishing Ministries stakeholder group, and independent fishermen from all Caspian states that there are fewer fish in the Caspian waters because of oil and gas drilling activities. However, the representatives of the Energy Ministry stakeholder group and the oil and gas industry/ multinational corporation stakeholder group believe that the decline in certain fisheries is due to over-fishing, poaching and corruption in the Caspian region. Though the credibility of both of these concerns is valid, the potential for increased conflict among these groups grows as energy industry activity increases and over-fishing continues. If left unaddressed by the Caspian Environment Programme, this issue could severely bind the ability of the Programme to meet its objectives of improving environmental stewardship and cooperation throughout the region. Therefore the stakeholder analysis survey has the important goal of delineating these potential conflicts and recommending strategies for avoiding them. Though these conflicts may not be state based, they are important as national borders become more porous. Additionally, because environmental issues are rarely bound by political borders, attention to the potential environmental conflicts in this region is critical, both to those working in the region, and to those who study it.